) 

dl 


‘■*1  W  *> , 

O  O  uj 


'"'  1  »  »15 


i  "  'Reprinted  from  The  Annals  of  the  American  Academy  of  Political  and  Social 
t  i  Science,  Philadelphia,  July,  1915. 

(7? 


Publication  No.  899. 


“  TRADE  POSSIBILITIES  IN  GERMANY  AND  AUSTRIA 
By  Isaac  Wolf,  Jr., 

President  of  the  American  Association  of  Commerce  and  Trade,  Berlin. 

American  business  men  as  a  class,  whether  they  are  doing  busi¬ 
ness  in  Germany  or  not,  or  whether  they  have  in  the  past  had  any 
German  trade  at  all  or  not,  should  awaken  to  the  fact  that  the 
greatest  chance  for  trade  expansion  is  going  to  come  to  the  United 
States  as  a  result  of  this  war,  and  that  this  chance  for  trade  ex¬ 
pansion  is  with  Germany  and  Austria. 

Americans  are  talking  a  lot  about  the  opportunities  for  trade 
expansion  with  South  America  presented  by  the  war.  But  there 
is  nothing  heard  of  the  far  more  important  field  afforded  by  Ger¬ 
many  and  Austria.  South  America  has  a  population  of  about 
35,000,000.  Germany  and  Austria  have  a  combined  population  of 
about  115,000,000. 

The  manufacturers  of  the  United  States  should  arouse  them¬ 
selves  to  the  fact  that  the  Teutonic  allies  are  going  to  offer  a 
superb  market  for  American  goods  in  consequence  of  the  war. 
The  goods  which  were  hitherto  imported  from  Great  Britain  and 
her  colonies,  from  France  and  from  Russia,  can  in  large  measure, 
be  supplied  hereafter  by  the  manufacturers  of  the  United  States  if 
American  business  men  will  once  understand  that  there  is  to  be  a 
vast  market  presented  in  those  countries. 

The  question  is  often  asked,  “What  goods  will  sell  well  in  Ger¬ 
many?’  *  In  general  any  manufacture  of  first  class  quality  will  sell 
-  in  Germany.  When  this  war  is  over  Germany  will  need  almost  all 
kinds  of  goods  and  it  will  be  good  time  to  get  into  the  German  mar¬ 
ket  and  we  shall  find  Germany  one  of  the  best  foreign  markets. 
In  general,  a  firm  going  into  the  German  market  should  have  its 
own  special  representative — this  special  representative  will  be  found 
to  be  the  connecting  line  between  producer  and  consumer.  This 
applies  to  doing  business  with  most  countries.  The  first  requisite  of 
foreign  trade  is  superiority  of  goods.  There  is  no  reason  why 
American  textiles,  especially  hosiery  and  knit  goods,  in  which 
branches  we  have  made  great  strides,  should  not  compete  with  those 


2 


The  Annals  of  the  American  Academy 


of  German  make.  There  will  always  be  articles  with  which  we  can¬ 
not  compete,  otherwise  trade  ceases  to  be  reciprocal.  The  sale  of 
American  footwear  in  Germany  has  increased  about  half  a  million 
during  the  past  year.  Our  tanning  processes  are  said  to  be  superior 
to  the  German  and  we  are  also  very  careful  to  put  good  stock  into 
our  footwear.  American  fur-trimmed  clothing  could  be  exported 
with  profit,  as  furs  are  cheaper  with  us  —  provided  however,  we 
consult  the  tastes  of  our  customers.  In  hides  and  leather,  also 
in  woolen  goods,  we  could  compete.  In  manufactures  of  paper  we 
are  in  many  respects  ahead  of  Germany  as  to  variety  of  good  designs 
and  uses  to  which  we  put  paper — these  are  finding  a  ready  market 
in  Germany.  Instead  of  importing  made-up  cotton  goods  from 
Germany,  we  ought  to  export  them  and  supply  our  own  needs  from 
our  own  mills.  American  ready-made  suits  for  men  and  boys  are  a 
new  article  for  Germany  and  are  selling  well  at  present  in  the  de-_ 
partment  stores  in  Berlin,  where  also  American  collars,  cuffs  and 
shirts  are  marketed.  This  is  a  branch  that  would  not  fail  of  a  good 
sale;  to  be  sure  we  already  have  our  goods  there,  but  in  small  quanti¬ 
ties  only.  A  German  collar  sells  for  a  quarter,  so  that  there  ought  to 
be  a  good  profit.  Other  things  that  could  be  sold  in  such  a  store  are 
travelers’  requisites  and  every  requisite  for  a  gentleman’s  outfit,  and 
American  steel  office  furniture.  Little  attempt  has  been  made  to 
sell  office  furniture,  only  one  American  firm,  so  far  as  I  know, 
having  made  an  attempt.  Our  state  department  at  Washington 
has  lately  been  in  the  habit  of  furnishing  its  offices  abroad  with  this 
kind  of  furniture,  a  practical  advertisement  if  pointed  out  to  visitors. 
There  are  many  other  articles  which  would  sell  well  in  Germany. 

During  the  few  months  I  have  been  in  the  United  States  the 
usual  greeting  I  receive  is,  “Well,  you  are  lucky  to  get  away  from 
Germany  just  at  this  time.”  I  mention  this  as  indicative  of  the 
erroneous  impression  concerning  present  conditions  in  Germany. 
I  say  erroneous — because  if  you  were  in  the  city  of  Berlin  today, 
you  would  not  imagine  that  the  country  is  engaged  in  one  of  the 
most  formidable  wars  Germany  ever  undertook.  It  is  remarkable 
to  what  extent  normal  conditions  have  been  maintained  in  Berlin 
since  the  beginning  of  hostilities.  You  see  just  as  many  able- 
bodied  men  on  the  streets,  you  see  just  as  many  ladies  doing  their 
shopping  as  ever,  you  will  find  the  cafes  and  confectioners  as  fre¬ 
quented  as  ever,  only  you  will  find  the  Germans  quieter  and  more 


German  and  Austrian  Trade  Possibilities 


3 


subdued  as  a  natural  result  of  the  terrible  sacrifices  almost  every 
family  is  making. 

The  retail  stores,  especially  the  great  department  stores,  are 
still  doing  a  good  business.  Electric  and  other  power  cabs  are 
still  running,  although  in  reduced  numbers  owing  to  the  lack  of 
chauffeurs.  The  auto  omnibuses,  however,  are  running  regularly 
on  all  lines.  A  small  number  of  the  wives  of  conductors  on  the 
surface  lines  have  been  given  the  places  of  their  husbands,  who  have 
gone  to  the  front.  Factories,  other  than  those  for  military  needs, 
are  working  on  half-time,  half-wages  and  half -force.  Merchants  are 
meeting  their  liabilities  as  in  times  of  peace  and  there  is  no  morator¬ 
ium.  Everyone  is  trying  his  or  her  best  to  bridge  over  the  business 
situation.  Those  working  for  the  army,  in  any  capacity,  are  mak¬ 
ing  hay  while  the  sun  shines,  and  the  average  shoemaker,  saddler 
and  petty  tailor  have  for  years  not  reaped  such  golden  harvests  as 
at  the  present  time.  Latest  statistics  show  that  the  improvement 
of  the  labor  question  is  making  steady  strides  and  the  number  of  un¬ 
employed  is  not  as  large  as  might  be  expected.  Of  course  taking 
5,000,000  men  for  the  army  lessens  the  number  of  mouths  to  be  fed 
at  home. 

The  Industrial  Situation 

It  is  unnecessary  to  remark  that  industrial  activity  under¬ 
went  many  limitations  during  the  days  of  mobilization,  but  assumed 
fairly  normal  shape  after  concentration  of  the  military  forces. 
No  slack  was  experienced  by  the  industries  connected  with  the 
production  of  food  products.  The  metal  and  clothing  industries 
are,  on  the  whole,  engaged  to  their  full  capacity.  During  the  months 
of  September  and  October  the  following  industries  increased  their 
activity  and  output:  the  metal,  chemical,  textile,  clothing,  leather 
goods  and  printing  industries. 

Prices  of  Foodstuffs 

The  harvests  in  Germany  last  fall  were  almost  normal.  The 
yield  of  rye  exceeded  that  of  previous  years  by  a  million  and  a  half 
hundredweight,  and  rye  forms  the  staple  article  of  food.  All  the 
crops  were  harvested  expeditiously  by  aid  of  the  pupils  in  the  higher 
classes  of  the  schools  and  the  seeding  next  spring  will  probably  be 
done  by  the  same  persons. 


4 


The  Annals  of  the  American  Academy 


In  October  the  federal  council  prescribed  maximum  prices  for 
wheat,  to  take  effect  November  4.  The  maximum  price  for  home¬ 
grown  rye  differs  somewhat  in  the  various  provinces,  but  keeps 
within  the  limit  of  between  209  and  237  marks  per  ton.  The  maxi¬ 
mum  price  for  home-grown  wheat  amounts  to  40  marks  more  than 
for  rye.  The  object  of  these  fixed  maximum  prices  is  to  insure 
steady  provision  of  food  for  the  population  at  normal  prices. 

In  scrutinizing  the  future  of  American  exports  into  Germany, 
it  can  safely  be  said  at  the  outset  that  soon  after  the  war  a  tremen¬ 
dous  boom  may  be  expected.  Three  conditions,  however,  govern 
this  desirable  and  hoped-for  situation,  viz.: 

First,  that  the  friendly  political  relations  of  old  between  Amer¬ 
ica  and  Germany  continue; 

Second,  that  the  same  commercial  relations  continue,  unharmed 
on  either  side  by  prejudice  or  envy; 

Third,  that  American  exporters  deal  with  their  German  ^cus¬ 
tomers  direct. 

In  regard  to  the  first  item,  any  sane  person  does  not  expect  any¬ 
thing  but  continuation  of  the  old,  never  disturbed  friendship  be¬ 
tween  the  two  countries. 

The  second  item  calls  for  tolerance  on  the  part  of  both  countries, 
and  efforts  in  this  direction,  combined  with  intelligent  study,  in 
order  to  widen  the  export  possibilities,  will  surely  lead  to  splendid 
results. 

The  third  item  represents  but  natural  results  of  the  attitude  of 
the  English  government  which  now  prohibits  any  commercial  inter¬ 
course  with  Germany.  American  exporters,  who  have  given  sales 
privileges  for  continental  Europe  to  business  houses  in  England, 
will  in  the  future  have  to  do  their  business  with  the  representatives 
in  Germany  direct. 


